So Join In The Chorus And Sing It One And All!
Pretenders, Contenders with a splash of controversy
So Join In The Chorus And Sing It One And All!
Pretenders, Contenders with a splash of controversy
There is a very small amount of things in the world that is more satisfying then watching Collingwood being absolutely demolished, except for when the sleeping Giants wake up and take down the fair-weather Swans by more than 6 goals!
Gold Coast gets the win over the Tigers to show they will be a team to be reckoned with and Port Adelaide show that last year was not a fluke.
Very exciting stuff to start the season but how has this gone in Fantasy circles?
I’ll be selfish and start with my team. Yes I had the mad panic changes before the partial lockout and with the site being smashed by other like minded panicked fantasy coaches, I did have one failed changed but it shouldn’t effect the round.
The changes could reflect some sheep thinking but in the end I was pleased (did not have the Free Hit build) and at the end of week one I am sitting on 1428 points 13 played including captain.
Most of the team performed well with my last change of dumping Watson to Barlow being a highlight. The majority of other 110+ scorers were the most picked players such as Beams, Sandilands, Swallow and D. Martin. One of the favourite picks by coaches, D. Thomas didn’t get close to what we expected and in fact finished with 65. This hurts me only because I late changed Macrae to Thomas and I’m expecting Macrae to do much better.
Some highlights that weren’t part of my team included:
Magpies V Dockers:
Nate Fyfe, well holy crap what a start he had to the season and many coaches out there would be cheering. Right up until he was handed the red vest, forcing him to finish on 64 points. He looks to be a dead set bona fide gun this year, kinda. I’m still not sold on his consistency.
Tom Langdon, this boy can play and do not worry about his job security. 24 possessions included 9 contested disposals and a Kick to Handball ration of 5:1. Before round 2, get on this lad.
Usual suspects in the Pies side showed why they are heavily picked; Pendlebury 26 disposals and 122 points, Ball 25 disposals and 124 points but where is Swan? It felt like Swan never got out of 2nd gear, he pulled up with what looked like a groin strain after a kick, got pushed around a bit but did still score 97points. At $636600 that score is not any where good enough. Advice if you have him? Drop him for round 2 and if you want a Pie, get Beams (as if you haven’t already) or Ball.
Matthew Pavlich, apart from his goal radar looks to be in great form. 84 points with 4 behinds…get the line right and hello 100+ scores.
Clinton Young showed why he is being talked about, Mzungu continues to impress me, Taylor Adams looked alright but not for Fantasy and Grundy must listen to fantasy critics.
Giants v Swans:
Well didnt this screw up my tipping but Hell Yeah, I Don’t Care! For me, this was the match of the weekend. I said GWS will be more competitive this year but wowee, they looked like thay have been playing for 6-7 years and not the 3 year kiddies that the Swans expected.
Much has been talked about Buddy Franklin. He is at a juicy price but he under performed in NAB so do you pick him or not? I think some may have chosen him for the Free Hit round 1 considering he played the Giants. Well I think it is fair to say what a mistake that was. 7 possessions with just 1 goal (52 points) and didn’t the Giants let him know about it. Save your money and grab a Caddy or even Pavlich.
With the Giants you have to expect some low games so when you see Coniglio (130), Treloar (124), Mumford (110) are these convincing scores to get them in your side? No. The only ‘safe’ pick would be Ward (111).
Tom Mitchell is another high pick player and concerns are will he be hit by 2nd year blues? He did score 93 but to me, it wasn’t a convincing game and he is on my potential chopping block depending on other Forward results.
Cunningham should definitely be on your radar if you haven’t picked him up yet. He looked fantastic out there and made a strong case to be in the best 22. Where Laidler proved he is not Fantasy points relevant. Rohan is another on many coaches bench and although he only score 50, there is little options to replace him. Hold on to him.
Suns v Tigers
My mate tip the Suns to be in the 8 this year and he is a Tiger supporter so his feelings after the game were justified and disappointed. The Suns played brilliantly with the same players I spoke about in my Ladder predictions firing from the start
Ablett (141) proved his price point and you cant go wrong with him in your team, if you have the cash. Prestia (125), Swallow (114) and O’Meara (112) just proved to us that they are the future guns of AFL Fantasy.
Probably the biggest Fantasy news from this match is Jack Martin injuring himself within the 1st few minutes of his début. Some are expecting this shoulder injury to keep him out for 4-6 weeks, others say just 2 weeks. Either way, dump him and use the extra cash elsewhere.
The main fantasy players of the Tigers (Deledio – 132, Cotchin – 127) did their job but it was Matt Thomas who caught my attention. He had 29 disposals for 108 points and does he ever find the ball but he his a heavy handballer. At and awkward price of $271,100 can you take him over the rookies like Michie, Tyson, Polec or even X. Ellis?
Under performers were favourites of Ellis (50) and Houli (73). Is this the result of just one game? Probably but I’m still staying clear.
Blues v Power
Another great match to watch. Carlton we dominant in the 1st quarter but Power’s elite endurance won the day and we saw some stars shine.
The man tree Ollie Wines scored his highest fantasy score of 136 with 28 disposals and 9 tackles! He does not look like he will be hit with 2nd Year Blues. Not a bad option but has that awkward price of $402,300.
Many pushed aside the thought of Westoff as being fantasy relevent. Well his new role of plugging the hole in the backline if the opposition starts kicking goals, means he will always be near the ball and when he has a return of 20 possessions and 5 goals (113 points) he is hard to ignore.
One of my last minute changes was dropping Lobbe and for most of the game, it seem to be the right move. Of course after finishing with 28 hit outs and 83 points, I may have to relook at this but I am concern of his ruck duties being shared….
Dale Thomas, good to see him on the park and I think if you are a patient fantasy coach, picking him up will pay off but when you can get Macrae, Shiels or Savage for around the same price, is tonight’s score of 65 enough?
So there you have a bit of a ramble about the 1st four matches of 2014. Don’t expect this each week, I was just keen because it is the 1st week and Fantasy football is finally back!
With the footy about to finally start, a mate of mine asked me what my top 8, premiership and wooden spoon predications are.
Good question Bifrost.
Let’s start with the Premiership
With Fremantles stunned mullet grand final appearance behind, they will be out to prove (and redeem) themselves to the fans. What could also be the final years of Pavlich, Sandilands and McPharlin, there will be a huge push to send them off with the deserve Grand Final win. Speaking of Sandilands, how good is he playing after , what looks like, finally getting over the dreaded Turf Toe. I also see a Grand Final rematch happening.
Premiership Flag goes to Fremantle.
The wooden spoon
Not really a tough prediction here. GWS are improving and as long as they stay fit and have shaken off the 2nd year blues, they should be more competitive throughout the year. St Kilda would be the only contender outside GWS for the spoon. I do not see many wins from the Saints as they rebuild from the large retirements and/or trades from last year. It will be a long year for the Saints faithful.
Wooden Spoon goes to GWS Giants
This was tough. The top 3 was easy and you can mix them around but it will still be Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn. But who will fill in the other 5 possies of the 8.
Collingwood will still be a force with Swan, Pendles, Beams, Adams and Ball as an engine room, how could they not be. Richmond and North Melbourne are in similar places, high expextations from clubs, fans and the AFL. The Tiges are looking great with again another powerful midfield. The Cotch in NAB looked fantastic, Ellis is ready to take the next step in his game and ‘Don’t Argue” Martin will again make his presence known. For North, the draw is a big factor with the Lions, Bulldogs, Crows and Demons played twice. They will look flat at first while they still adapt not having Swallow but this will force Ziebell and Cunnington to step up. The backline is looking its strongest especially with the addition of Father/Son McDonald.
Geelong may not be the powerhouse they were a few years ago but you cannot write them off. Some astute pick ups have made a very strong young team. Players like Caddy, Hunt, Horlin-Smith and Guthrie coming through, they will be a dominant force again sooner than we would like. Essendon, yes Essendon. Last year they made the eight despite the media witch hunt and ASADA hovering around them. They were stripped of some of the points and missed the finals. Expect them to play hard this season, with less distraction and something to prove.
That would be the eight but the next 3 teams have cases to push themselves in there. Port Adelaide making the finals has given them a tough draw with Fremantle and Carlton to be played twice and Away games versus Sydney, Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast and Fremantle. Tough run, tough ask. Gold Coast will be a big mover this year. They have the right mix of experienced players with players like Bennell, Swallow, O’Meara and Prestia ready to go up another gear and add Jack Martin in their with evergreen Ablett, they will not be a walk over team and should win more than the tiptsers expect. Carlton is a team I can’t quite work out. Low possession football is very different to this age of football. With Cinderella Ankle Thomas in the mid, will that help the heavily tagged Murphy.
These next teams will be a frustrating team to follow. There will be highs and more lows in the year. For Melbourne though, it will all be positive. Roos has already started to work his magic and with the new look midfield of Vince, Dyson, Michie to help the older gaurd of Jones and Cross, there is much to be excited about. West Coast is another team that I struggle to say why they wont be in the 8 but I know they wont. Western Bulldogs will be exciting to watch with the likes of Liberatore, Dahlhaus and Macrae running about. Hey if Higgens stays off the stretcher they may prove my prediction for them wrong. Adelaide lost a lot of players in the draft period, they have key players injured and they will need time to recover.
The bottom 3. I have already talked about GWS and the Saints so that leaves the Brisbane 2nds. Another team to have a mass exodus last year they will be a long time coming to put pressure on other teams.
So there you have it. My ladder prediction, wooden spooners and flag bearers. Lets see who this looks mid way through the year.
So far his $487800 price tag is not working with scores of 52 and 75. His breakeven is at a high of 158 so we can be sure we will lose $30,000 approx after this week. So what do you do?
Do you hold out and hope it isn’t 2nd year blues but just a slow start?
Do you downgrade now to an under-priced forward that is scoring big and has a brilliant BE?
With 2 trades every week, this is exactly what you be looking at. Cash in now to a performer that will make you the instant cash and if Zorko come good later on, his price would have dropped enough to pick up with a profit. But who do you pick up?
The 2 that jump out of the box are Justin Westhoff and his team mate Angus Monfries. Both players are under $400,000. They both have BE less than 20 and Port Adelaide play Adelaide this week which always makes for a big game. Justin Westhoff top scored in the Fantasy world last week with 154 points but yes it was vs GWS Giants and his 100 points the week before was vs Melbourne. This does ask what will he do vs real defence this week for he could be tag with last years NAB Rising Star winner Daniel Talia.
There must be a safer option….Well there is but you do spend more.
Nick Riewoldt didn’t have his best year in 2012 and is discounted accordingly. AT $441,400 many coaches have overlooked him (owned by just 3.29%) and the fact the St Kilda lads are looking a little ‘aged’ doesn’t help. Here is the argument for Riewoldt – scores of 82 (Gold Coast) and 108 (Richmond) gives him the average of 95 with a BE of 68 and he plays GWS this week. He looks fit and is again playing up the wings.
So what do you do?
|$$||RD1||RD2||RD3 Prediction||Next 3 Rds|
|Nick Riewoldt||$ 441,400||82||108||89||GWS, ESS,
|Justin Westhoff||$ 394,800||100||154||100||ADE, GCS,
|Angus Monfries||$ 352,300||93||96||79||ADE, GCS,
|Shaun Higgins||$ 396,200||115||68||83||RIC, ADE,
|Jeff Garlett||$ 331,400||59||124||74||GEE, WCE,
|Jamie Elliot||$ 328,900||56||125||75||HAW, RIC,
|Jeremy Howe||$ 394,600||65||106||80||WCE, GWS,
The 2010 AFL season has begun and so has the Dream Team comp. And boy, does my team different to the original one I posted?!
JGram, CEnright, CCornes, LHodge, SHurn, TKennelly, RSchoenmakers, PDavies, JTrengrove (moved)
LHayes, JCorey, LBall, RPalmer, RLadson (moved), DMartin, JMelksham, LShuey
ASandilands, DJolly, MLobbe, JRoughead
FORWARDS: NReiwoldt, JBrown,
MLeCras, BHall, BWarren, PDangerfield, BBurton, SGumbleton, LTapscott
That’s 19 changes and 2 were moved to different positions.
Why the changes? NAB cup form, injuries and the team lists for round 1 were the main factors. Of course after listening to my own podcast (One Troll Short) with Bifrost, I change my mind on a few players as well ie EBetts is in.
So who did finally make the cut? What 19 players impressed me enough to pick them up?
You will have to keep coming back after each 1st round match of AFL to find out as I can’t give away all my secrets yet….
BACKS: ACarrazzo, BNason, CEnright, JHunt, LHodge, TKennelly, NMalceski, HShaw, ASilvagni.
CENTRES: DMartin, JBartel, SMitchell, LJetta, SPendlebury, LBall, RBastinac, MBarlow.
RUCKS: RWarnock, JTrengrove, ASandilands, KTippert.
FORWARDS: EBetts, MDuncan, NRiewoldt, JBrown, PMedhurst, DGiansiracusa, BHall, CHitchcock, HBallantyne.
There you have it, the final line up for 2010 Dream Team.