Posts Tagged ‘north melbourne’

Prediction flashback

Posted: September 4, 2014 in AFL
Tags: ,

aflfootyRound 23 has been completed, finals are here (CARN THE ROOS!) so its stime to look back at the ladder predictions made at before round 1:
So what did I have way back in March compared to actual wash up. Well I wasn’t that far off the mark. Biggest miss was having Collingwood in 8 and Port not. I predicated Hawks in 2nd and North in 6th….

Prediction Actual
1st Fremantle Sydney
2nd Hawthorn Hawthorn
3rd Sydney Geelong
4th Collingwood Fremantle
5th Richmond Port Adelaide
6th North Melbourne North Melbourne
7th Geelong Essendon
8th Essendon Richmond
9th Port Adelaide West Coast
10th Gold Coast Adelaide
11th Carlton Collingwood
12th Western Bulldogs Gold Coast
13th West Coast Carlton
14th Adelaide Western Bulldogs
15th Melbourne Brisbane
16th Brisbane GWS
17th St Kilda Melbourne
18th GWS St Kilda

 
So I got 7 of the top 8 right, I did say the Saints would battle for the wooden spoon (only battle they won I guess). Gold Coast were in the 8 until GAblett went down but they were still a big mover.
I predicted Freo to take the Flag. It could still happen. They have found some great form and Fyfe is back but Johnson is gone. Sydney and Hawthorn will be the teams to be beat and we know at least one, if not both, will be there.
I’m excited North made it and they have beaten Sydney, Hawthorn, Fremantle, Port Adelaide and Richmond in season but of course the two teams they have beaten is Essendon and Geelong. Elimination round is vs Essendon this week and if North win and so does Hawthorn, North plays Geelong the following week!

Next I’ll chat about how the Kneejerkers went in AFL Fantasy and Elite this year.

aflfantasyClearly my hype around Andrew Swallow has not paid off.
Bringing him in before round 13 after Watson was injured, has produced scores of 78 and 84.
And last week he gets injured (was kind enough to get his BE first)
The Cash we were hoping to make has capped out at just over $2k. Now you need to dump him.
Hopefully you didn’t go too big with the cash already and you can bring in a premium mid like Barlow or Goddard.

With all my ranting and fanboy dribble for Swallow, I will be trading him out but I will be bringing in another North boy that just 1% of teams have. This lad has been averaging 115 in last 3 games and 124 in last 5. He finished with 127 last week and has a highest score of 147.
Levi Greenwood. Midfielder $555,690.

This man has been a machine since round 7. Where ever there is the ball, you will find Greenwood. His huge scores are not vs minnows of the league either 147 – Port, 120 – Gold Coast, 146 – Geelong, 133 West Coast oh and 127 – Melbourne. This week North play Brisbane again. Last they meet he scored just 91 points with 27 disposals.
It is hard to ignore North players with such an easy line up to the finals. Look at the 4 teams North play for the Fantasy finals – GWS, Bulldogs, Crows and Demons. To get there, North plays Saints, Blues and Cats (remember the 146 last time). Yes they have the Hawks as well but hey.

Levi Greenwood – great POD and on fire. Just saying.

aflfantasyRound 11 done and the Kneejerkers scrapped to 2066 due to late withdrawals, concussions, corked thighs and poor performances.
The big panic for a lot of coaches was the late withdrawal of Dane Swan just 90 mins before the Friday night match. I too went into a panic. After the week of debating, planning and reading, I thought my entire trading plan was going out the window.
Deep breaths later, I stuck to my guns and held Swan on the bench and had Hallahan take his spot on the field. Thats all good, he should be good for a score of 80. No he gets a 64 meanwhile my latest IN before the round of Shenton scores 83.
A question some are asking, what to do with Swan? Trade him out for a Barlow maybe? Hold on to him and hope the pig is back vs Melbourne this week? To make it tougher, Collingwood and Melbourne play on the Monday which means we wont know the teams until after lockout.
Rodney Eade has given his injury assessment stating Swan should play.
My plan is to hold him with my priority to strengthen the backline. But if you have more of a luxury trade this week, Barlow is a very good choice, averaging 106 over the last 3 rounds, and is priced nicely for a sideways trade.

How about the Swans? Wow, did not expect the 110 point drumming to the Cats on Thursday. They are playing exciting footy and very exciting Fantasy footy currently. Eight players over the 100 mark last week and eight players averaging over 100 in the last 3 weeks. Lets look at the 5 you must be watching.

Position  Price BE Round 11 L3 Rd Ave L5 Rd Ave Overall Ave
Josh P Jennedy MID  $            578,302 88 123 133.67 124 112.1
Craig Bird FWD / MID  $            449,313 29 131 117.33 108.8 87.88
Luke Parker FWD / MID  $            528,344 88 108 116 111 103.1
Kieren Jack MID  $            527,535 84 123 114.33 113 100.11
Lance Franklin FWD  $            435,357 48 113 111.33 97 84.78

As you can see, these 5 are hitting some great form and will be going up next week in price, some quite heftily. What other coaches say? Get on Parker straight away.
He is the number one forward of the fantasy comp. I had the chance to get him but I was concerned about his output now that Tippet and Franklin were finding their rhythm. The concern is still there. Normally you would take a score of 108 from a forward without hesitation but this was in a game where the Swans dominated by 110 points so should he have had more because of the huge attacking game? For the record, I picked up Harvey instead of Parker.
Franklin is on fire over the last 3-5 weeks (not including the Melbourne game of 41), his price is drool worthy and his BE makes it a decision you need to make straight away. But lets look at the Melbourne score, and the North Melbourne game and the GWS game. This is where Buddy can hurt but, you know what? All forwards will do this to you some weeks. Don’t worry about the sub par scores, get on Buddy. The price and form of the Swans makes him a must.
Craig Bird I’m not sold on. 131 last week vs the Cats makes him tempting, his price makes him tempting and his Dual Position makes him tempting and maybe its the crash of form last year that yells no, i’m just not sure. JPK you can’t go wrong and Jack is another good pick up for his price.

Last week I quickly spoke about Andrew Swallow. After his long term injury he has now played 3 games. Last week vs the Eagles he looked more comfortable and less rust in his legs. His hard ball gets are back, last week sometime too hard which did cost a couple of frees against. What I did highlight is his tackling side of the game. Previous 5 years he averages over 7 tackles a game. Let us have a look at him so far. Swallow started as a sub in his first game, rotated fairly regularly over his second and still spent more than normal time on the pine last week. It works out over the 3 games he has a TOG of 71.7%. This will increase as his return to fitness increases.
In this 71% TOG he has already accumulated 18 tackles (6 per game which is equal 18th in the AFL), averaging 8.3 contested possessions, 9.3 uncontested possessions and is increasing his Fanatsy score each week (62, 72 and 102).
Swallows original price tag was $512,00 and because of his slow ease into the game he has already dropped to $439,402 with a BE of 92. This means he will probabaly have 1 maybe 2 more price drops before he starts hitting his stride and averages the 100 mark.
Do we pick him up? Looking at round 13-14 to pick up a player, you should by then already have a very strong midfield with players averaging more than 100 but! If you still have a Nathan Jones type player, Swallow could be the $400k player to downgrade to. You know he will increase in value and output. North Melbourne has one of the easiest runs home and once he makes the extra cash, you could upgrade to a bigger pig. If you have a rookie topping out but you dont have enough for the full upgrade, maybe the extra $100K you need comes from Swallow. Or maybe you just want a cheaper option on the bench that you know will always perform.
What ever need you have for your team, keep an eye on Andrew Swallow.

Trades this week (remember its very early in week and teams not announced)
Langdon OUT –> McVeigh/Bartel IN
Wingard/Llyod OUT –> Cameron IN

aflfantasy Round 10 is complete, the final bye of the season is complete. Thank gosh for that.
The Kneejerkers had a mixture of results during the byes but overall I was quite happy.
I planned from the start of the season to have a 8/10/12 set up when round 8 arrived (first of the byes) and as tempting as some players got to pick up, I stuck to it. The results?
Round 8
OUT – Merret, Enright
IN – Robbie Gray, Kurt Aylet
Result: SCORE – 1738
Win in OTS League, Captain Fyfe with 260.

Round 9
OUT – Chapman, Polec
IN – Dane Swan, Taylor Walker
Result: SCORE – 1782
Loss in OTS League. Captain Ablett with 254

Round 10
OUT – Georgiou, Cunningham
IN – Matthew Jaensch, Jed Bews
Result: SCORE – 1747
Loss in OTS League. Captain Ablett with 156

As you can see, a very consistent score throughout the byes. Hindsight does make me question the Swan move but at the price he was, it was too hard to resist. Jaensch, I am happy to pick up and it does give me some cash in the bank but again, looking back and seeing I could have picked up Bartel (155 this week) does make me cry a little. But I have a plan and I am trying to stick to it. Bonus is my over rankings improved each week, after round 9 I did break into the top 2000 and after round 10 I improved again to currently sit at 1153.
What does the Kneejerkers look like after the byes and what is the plan?
Kneejerkers post bye
Well the plan from here is to strengthen the forward line. Maybe bring in a Dangerfield, Parker or Harvey and make Tex my bench cover. I am concerned about some of my almost premium mids though.
Macrae had a ripper start to the season but either he is getting tired or being tagged harder. With 4 weeks in a row of scores in the 80s, maybe it is time for him to depart. Nathan Jones was always going to be a brave POD and just before I cut him free, he scores 110 to stay in the team even with his bye but with two scores under 70 before that, alarm bells are ringing and then there is Swan. Was it a good move to bring in the traditional Fantasy pig? Or should i have spent extra coin for Pendlebury the new Fantasy pig?
This will be my debate but I think I will end up sticking with my plan for the Forwards and I probably will succumb to the need of having a North player so that would be Harvey.
Saying that, Andrew Swallow has now played 2 games under his belt after coming back from an Achilles injury. Scores of 62 and 72 were expected as he will be rusty since he hadn’t played since round 18 2013. This man is a sneaky premium midfielder and a tackling machine. In the last 5 years his tackling numbers have been 152, 183, 145, 164 and the short 2013 season still had 107 (that’s over 7 per game). He is already average over 4 tackles in just 2 games. He was priced at a premium of $512,000 but with limited time on the field he has already dropped by over $64,000 and still has a BE of 107. Next week North play West Coast at Patersons but after that, it maybe worth having a closer look in bringing him in for a Macrae or Jones.

aflfantasyRound 3 happened. It was not pretty for me and by the sounds of it, not pretty for many other fantasy coaches in the Classic League

A score of 1948 after a great start hurt, dropping to rank 9165 overall. How did this happen?

Le Cras breaking an arm was a good start but having 10 players fail to score more than 80 was the killer. Polec, Tyson, DMartin, Caddy, TMitchell and Langford (Enright cover) were the big disappointments but the biggest painful score came from the ruckman, Hickey. A score of 39 is atrocious. I knew he would struggle against the Eagles but I thought he would get at least a respectable score.

Trading this week?
Le Cras of course is out and as with every other fantasy coach, Jackson Merret looks to be the obvious choice. When he is priced at a lazy $382,972 with an average of 92.2 including scores of 111 v North Melbourne and 94 v Hawthorn you can see why people are jumping on him. No I will not comment on the game vs the Carlton under 12s and the cheap 131 he score.
With a BE of -2 it is the instant cash injection all coaches dream of, $80k for the trade and a a low BE is made for fantasy.
So that’s the 1st trade sorted out.

Hickey – do I stick with him? We know he won’t be a premium ruckman and was always there to make money but with a Break Even (BE) of just 45 is it too early to pull the trigger? With the extra cash, Mumford, the ruckman of the moment, could slot in very easy. Seems like an obvious choice.
Except for 2 reasons.
Chapman had a ankle injury last week and the rumour is, Essendon will not fly him to Perth to let him rest. Eagles v Bombers is a Sunday match so I wont know until Friday night if this comes true.
Wingard IS out this week with his injured ankle which does mean my bench needs to step in. But that bench consists of Green Vest Kennedy-Harris (29 average) and Rohan (44 average). Not a great prospect for a league match.
Question is, do I take the hit this week with a Rohan and possibly KH score on the field and bring in Mumford OR do I ride the Hickey train one more week and trade KH out for someone like Fasolo?
At this point I’m staying with Hickey. He should bounce back vs Adelaide and with the extra $100k for the Merret/Fasolo trade, even with Mumford’s BE of 45, I should be able to pick up the mummy next week.

Now the 1st two rounds are completed in the Elite Draft league and I havent been able to share my team with you. Consider it shared:
Kneejerkers Elite rd3
I think I lucked out with some of the pick ups I received.
My rucks have been the talk of the One Troll Short league with managing to get Cox, Hickey and Lobbe. Other key players have been Chapman, Suckling, Beams, Zorko and MThomas. I have done some Free Agent trading and did manage to grab Bugg, MCrouch and Fasolo. This has given me great coverage in all parts of the field.
And so far this has worked with scores of 1561 and 1407 giving 2 wins and sitting on top of the ladder. The draft game is intriguing. You arent looking at trades each week like the Classic form and your tactic is so very different. I am now thinking I would like more strength in my Mids but to do that, I need to convince another player to release that strength so what do I offer?
I have 3 strong rucks but to lose one means I’m short an emergency in the rucks. Hickey would be my choice to move on but would anyone take him after his 39? I’m keen to see how this plays out.
What? How did I get the rucks of choice? We had an auto draft so you need your preference players listed before hand. My thoughts were most coaches will have the Premium Mids as first choice but Mids are always high point players so I want to make sure I get the high points players from the weaker (points) positions so after the top 8 Mids I listed 3 rucks, after the next 8 mids I had 3 defenders but defenders that were back from injury, rookies or expecting breakout year in case other coaches had the premium defender listed higher and then after the next 8 mids i did the same with the Forwards as I did the Defenders, breakouts/return from injury players in a group of 3. I did bet on the fact some of the coaches did nothing with their preference list so they would just get the highest ranked players whether they are injured or not. (I made sure all long term injured players were placed in the 300s.)
First time I tried the Draft and I am happy with result.

I think I have made up for the no AFL Fantasy postings of the last two weeks with this one. I shall stop my rambling and monitor the Chapman story. Oh you may get spammed this weekend as I’ll be at the GWS v Bulldogs match on Saturday and the Sydney v the mighty North Melbourne Kangaroos on Sunday. You have been warned.

aflfooty

Before the season 2013 begun and during the NAB Cup, many of us put together a ladder prediction.

Who would take the flag? Who would make the top 8? Who would come from the bottom 8 to get to finals? and so on.

We are 14 rounds done with just 10 to go so I thought I would look at my predictions compared to the reality.

Firstly my predictions.

I had Sydney on top of the ladder for the reason is who well they played  and how deep their team goes. It was hard to see someone improve enough to knock them off.

Fremantle was next purely based on how I saw them play preseason and the run they had at the end of 2012. Hawks were 3rd as I was still no convinced they could go the way.

My outside the 8 into the 8 pick was Richmond and this was at the cost of my North Melbourne boys having a tough draw. Carlton also snuck in at the cost of Adelaide not having the soft draw this year.

Prediction After 14 rounds
1 Sydeny Hawthorn
2 Fremantle Geelong
3 Hawthorn Fremantle
4 West Coast Essendon
5 Collingwood Sydney
6 Geelong Richmond
7 Richmond Collingwood
8 Carlton Port Adelaide
9 North Melbourne Carlton
10 Essendon West Coast
11 Adelaide Adelaide
12 St Kilda Gold Coast
13 Brisbane North Melbourne
14 Port Adelaide Brisbane
15 Gold Coast St Kilda
16 Bulldogs Bulldogs
17 GWS Melbourne
18 Melbourne GWS

So I don’t think I was to far off with my predictions. Port Adelaide is the obvious surprise packet. Their final ten matches aren’t easy but with 4-5 more wins (which is doable) they could be playing finals.

Richmond fans are excited and so they should be. Consistent competitive footy is being shown. Their rookies have stepped up, the stars are shining. But can they beat the top 4?

What happened to North? Well it is a tougher draw but that is not an excuse. Unable to finish or shut down a team for 4 quarters has killed us. 4 matches lost by less than 4 points. Giving away leads..BUT there is hope for the next couple of years. Aaron Black in the forward line has been great, The Flying Mullet has himself a NAB Rising star nomination…there a lot of positives but it wont be finals this year. I can see 7 possible wins in the last 10 but I think that will still fall short of finals with just 11 wins.

Anyway, who did you predict at the start of the season to be top 4?

aflfantasy

The nightmare that was round 6 is done but can you forget and move on?

1755 was my Dreamteam score….9 players scoring less than 65, 1 doughnut and a captain not reaching 100 points.

Thank you North Melbourne for  the win otherwise it would have been a giant #FMDT and #FAFL.

With the low score I still had a league win and than when I got to work the next day, I had a strut tipping 9 from 9……so I thought. Stupid hand written forms, somehow I had Brisbane to win over Sydney. When the fk is Brisbane ever going to beat Sydney at Sydney…..anyway back to DT.

Where do you start? With so many injuries and suspensions from the previous week, I was forced to trade the backline to plug holes. This meant Westhoff got another run……and not only did he score a most forgettable 33 points, he drop over $50K.

Needless to say he is gone. Which did get me thinking as to which Forward to bring in.

Name  Price 3 game Avg BE Last Score Std Dev
S. Johnson  $  543,700 128.00 58 136 20.29
N. Riewoldt  $  516,200 121.00 48 117 22.68
Cloke  $  491,700 111.67 115 121 29.11
Rockliff  $  506,200 109.00 102 85 17.76
Cox  $  495,700 96.00 93 112 19.34
LeCras  $  409,500 95.33 70 106 12.16
Bartel  $  453,600 95.00 61 138 22.62
Stokes  $  438,800 93.33 97 88 20.17
Garlett  $  409,500 93.00 70 97 20.85
Lewis  $  427,800 90.67 74 101 11.23

So here are the top 10 performing Forward eligible players in the last 3 weeks. Most have similar Standard Deviations, prices are very even as well. So what do you do?

Well for me, I already have 4 of the 10. That makes 6 potentials. So I look at the Std Dev which you would normally go the lowest. That would be Lewis and LeCras. Normally you would go the lowest but with averages of under 100, their ceiling (average + std dev) is not a competitive score. So you want a match winner, someone who can knock a DT score out of the park and has an average of over 100. Ok so now we have Stevie J, Cloke and Riewoldt.

The stand out would be Stevie J right? This man gets the ball, performs magic with the ball and kicks goals. He is amazing in the field. And that is why I picked him up after round 2.

Decision now is Cloke or Riewoldt. Or if you prefer, Wildcard v Reliable. With Riewoldt you know you will get 100% from him every week, he is the heart of St Kilda and you know even when the Saints are losing, Riewoldt will score well. And the Saints are losing….

Let’s look at Cloke.

After a ordinary season by his standards last year, Cloke had a point to prove. This year he looks sharp and fit. He takes marks, kicks goals and is a worry for all opposition defenders. More importantly he can win you a DT game. Sure he has had 2 scores under 70 but take that away and he has 96, 121, 147 and 121. You just know when on song, Cloke will score big.

Again, do you go the reliable Riewoldt? Or the game winning wildcard Cloke?…….or wake up to yourself, play catch up and get Stevie J?

aflfantasy This time I’m back for sure, well at least during the AFL season.

The completion of round has happened and I feel a lot of rage from watching the North Melbourne vs Geelong game so I feel I need to document my Kneejerkers DT and SC events. Maybe I will even inspire some fantasy footballers to listening to my advice (or highlight what not to do)

Kneejerkers are back for 2013 for AFL DreamTeam (now known as AFL Fantasy) but I thought I may dabble with Supercoach as well. I’ll mainly talk Dream Team

Now you would all know the changes to Dream Team this year with trades etc so I wont go into that too much at this point. In fact I will mention just this – DO NOT BE AFRAID TO TRADE EARLY AND EVERY WEEK

With 2 trades guaranteed every week, the fear of trading is gone but you still want to make money so try avoiding sideways trades unless injuries happen.

Saying all that, it is the end of round 2 and I have already used 3 trades 😉

First week was to make sure I didn’t have any holes in the my team with certain rookies not playing and cheaper ones did

OUT: Kane Mitchell and Brent Macaffer ($251,900) IN: Brad Crouch and Sam Dwyer ($197,800)     –     REASON: For the price McCaffer was vs the return add the fact I had the coverage on field with Neade, Dwyer gave me cash with same scores. Mitchell will get the Green Vest more often than not and Crouch looks to be the injection the Crows need ATM. RESULT: Kitty of $78,300

After round 2 the automatic trade was taking away my fill in ruckman Zac Smith, who is playing some very ordinary football but he did set aside the cash for my real target in Matthew Lueunberger, the cheap almost premium ruckman who made a great return last week with 74.

OUT: Zac Smith ($300,700) IN: Matt Lueunberger ($233,600)    –    REASON: Not only was Smith poor in DT performance but the Burger was back from injury. Lueunberger was always my target as with most Fantasy coaches with his potential and low price. RESULT: Kitty of $145,400.

Now with one trade left up sleeve for the week, I have options but nothing clear cut. Mid price Forward option Karnezis had a 66 game in RD1 and a green vested 9 points in Rd2. His breakeven is achievable though at 64…but will he play? There is also Premium priced Zorko, is he having 2nd year blues or will he fire? So far with scores of 52 and 75 and a breakeven of 158, you know he will lose money but you don’t know if he will turn it around. Will Brisbane suffer he NAB Cup curse?

Decisions……I am more in the mindset to hold on to both. Trading Karnezis for similar pricing really only leaves Varcoe which you know he will play. Zorko though,hmm. Westhoff is on fire with an average of 127 but another Port player just feels wrong, same with Monfries . Ideally I want Steve Johnson but its a least another 4 weeks till he is back. Anyway..I’m not spending all my kitty at this stage. That is for upgrading the rookies.

Overall the Kneejerkers are scoring well with 2058 and 1989 in the 1st two rounds. My POD Andrew Swallow has worked a treat with 141 and 115 returns AND less than 5% of coaches have him! Now I don’t want to give my team away too much as the Head to Head is about to start but I think finding POD is harder this year. It seems the same rookies are in each team and the stock standards Premium mids are there.

Expect more Kneejerkers talk throughout the week as I aim to not just talk about my DT and SC sides but the fantasy AFL world as a whole.

They don’t come much bigger than Aaron Sandilands and they don’t come much better in the ruck but big Sandi has hurt us Dream Teamers.
Most coaches held on to Sandi over the 4 weeks while he was injured as we all new, and hoped, he would come back stronger. Not this time.
Sandilands has done more damage to his toe which could have him out for up to month of footy!

The question is now, what do we do?
1. We could hold out for another month, if we have the coverage, so Sandilands comes back for the Dream Team finals.
2. We could cash him in to get a large wad of cash and hope Zac Smith continues his great form.
3. We could trade him to another star ruck. But who? Goldstien is on fire but North Melbourne have a bye in the finals. Same is said for Petrie. Than there is McEvoy from the Saints. The way the Saints are playing, I would baulk at taking anyone from the Saints. The only other Ruckman getting games with a high 90 average is Cox and if you didnt have him in your team already, why are you playing Dream Team?

So that is the dilemma that most Dream Team coaches would have this week. It is a good one.
What am I going to do? Hmmm I do have Zac Smith and Max Bailey looks like a good trade down to give me a crap load of cash…..Decisions!

Episode 2 of One Troll Short has been released. Because of some editing issues, it is late and unfortunately after the completion of round 2 in the AFL.
But listen, enjoy and take note in what I had to say about Fremantle!

One Troll Short episode 2

Oh and it does look like these podcasts will be all about AFL and Dream Team….we just can’t fit anything else in.