Posts Tagged ‘Brisbane Lions’

With the footy about to finally start, a mate of mine asked me what my top 8, premiership and wooden spoon predications are.

Good question Bifrost.

Let’s start with the Premiership

With Fremantles stunned mullet grand final appearance behind, they will be out to prove (and redeem) themselves to the fans. What could also be the final years of Pavlich, Sandilands and McPharlin, there will be a huge push to send them off with the deserve Grand Final win. Speaking of Sandilands, how good is he playing after , what looks like, finally getting over the dreaded Turf Toe. I also see a Grand Final rematch happening.

Premiership Flag goes to Fremantle.

The wooden spoon

Not really a tough prediction here. GWS are improving and as long as they stay fit and have shaken off the 2nd year blues, they should be more competitive throughout the year. St Kilda would be the only contender outside GWS for the spoon. I do not see many wins from the Saints as they rebuild from the large retirements and/or trades from last year. It will be a long year for the Saints faithful.

Wooden Spoon goes to GWS Giants

The Ladder

This was tough. The top 3 was easy and you can mix them around but it will still be Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn. But who will fill in the other 5 possies of the 8.

Collingwood will still be a force with Swan, Pendles, Beams, Adams and Ball as an engine room, how could they not be. Richmond and North Melbourne are in similar places, high expextations from clubs, fans and the AFL. The Tiges are looking great with again another powerful midfield. The Cotch in NAB looked fantastic, Ellis is ready to take the next step in his game and ‘Don’t Argue” Martin will again make his presence known. For North, the draw is a big factor with the Lions, Bulldogs, Crows and Demons played twice. They will look flat at first while they still adapt not having Swallow but this will force Ziebell and Cunnington to step up. The backline is looking its strongest especially with the addition of Father/Son McDonald.

Geelong may not be the powerhouse they were a few years ago but you cannot write them off. Some astute pick ups have made a very strong young team. Players like Caddy, Hunt, Horlin-Smith and Guthrie coming through, they will be a dominant force again sooner than we would like. Essendon, yes Essendon. Last year they made the eight despite the media witch hunt and ASADA hovering around them. They were stripped of some of the points and missed the finals. Expect them to play hard this season, with less distraction and something to prove.

That would be the eight but the next 3 teams have cases to push themselves in there. Port Adelaide making the finals has given them a tough draw with Fremantle and Carlton to be played twice and Away games versus Sydney, Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast and Fremantle. Tough run, tough ask. Gold Coast will be a big mover this year. They have the right mix of experienced players with players like Bennell, Swallow, O’Meara and Prestia ready to go up another gear and add Jack Martin in their with evergreen Ablett, they will not be a walk over team and should win more than the tiptsers expect. Carlton is a team I can’t quite work out. Low possession football is very different to this age of football. With Cinderella Ankle Thomas in the mid, will that help the heavily tagged Murphy.

These next teams will be a frustrating team to follow. There will be highs and more lows in the year. For Melbourne though, it will all be positive. Roos has already started to work his magic and with the new look midfield of Vince, Dyson, Michie to help the older gaurd of Jones and Cross, there is much to be excited about. West Coast is another team that I struggle to say why they wont be in the 8 but I know they wont. Western Bulldogs will be exciting to watch with the likes of Liberatore, Dahlhaus and Macrae running about. Hey if Higgens stays off the stretcher they may prove my prediction for them wrong. Adelaide lost a lot of players in the draft period, they have key players injured and they will need time to recover.

The bottom 3. I have already talked about GWS and the Saints so that leaves the Brisbane 2nds. Another team to have a mass exodus last year they will be a long time coming to put pressure on other teams.

So there you have it. My ladder prediction, wooden spooners and flag bearers. Lets see who this looks mid way through the year.

  1. Fremantle Dockers
  2. Hawthorn Hawks
  3. Sydney Swans
  4. Collingwood Magpies
  5. Richmond Tigers
  6. North Melbourne Kangaroos
  7. Geelong Cats
  8. Essendon Bombers
  9. Port Adelaide Power
  10. Gold Coast Suns
  11. Carlton Blues
  12. Western Bulldogs
  13. West Coast Eagles
  14. Adelaide Crows
  15. Melbourne Demons
  16. Brisbane Lions
  17. St Kilda Saints
  18. GWS Giants
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NAB Challenge has finally arrived, last night in fact. Have you been watching?
Have to say, I missed last nights game and I am struggling with the Hawks destroying the Lions tonight. But I should watch it right? To get the info on the rookies we are wanting for our fantasy teams?
Well let us look at tonight’s match of the Hawks v Lions. Two very different tactics tonight by coaches including not even having the head coach actually coach. Brisbane is full of inexperience rookies and 2nd year players with Zorko (although a mature player is in his 3rd year only) as captain. So the new coach is clearly looking for someone to step up and rest the veterans a little longer. Normally this would be great for fantasy coaches, looking for the star youth making an impact but when it is versus an almost full strength 20133 Premiership Hawthorn side, how do you stand out? (currently the score is 93 to 9 Hawk’s way at halftime).
Hawthorn has an assistant coach acting as head coach tonight and with such a strong side versus the youth brigade, there isnt a really good chance for rookies to show their stuff on such a one-sided match.

What do we take away from matches like this? We take note of?
A: Who is fit
Suckling (HAW – DEF $314400) – Missed 12 months of footy and will be in the Hawks 22 for 2014. Has had a quiet match but with little forward pressure from Brisbane what can he do?
B: Traded players roles
McEvoy (HAW – RUC $410200) Has started well with plenty of Hit Outs to advantage (Mitchell mainly) and taken some great marks BUT the Hawks now have 4 ruckman. Is he the number 1 ruck? Do you save the $50-80K and pick him up? Here is the turn around to if he does play a lot combining with Hale, how will this effect Roughead’s fantasy output as he would now be sitting in the forward lines a higher percentage (including the no Buddy factor)
C: The rookies playing
Aish (BRI – MID $246600) To me there is only the one that is being talked about by commentators and does see some onscreen time. He is showing hunger for the ball but once the veteran Brisbane Mids come back, where does he play? He will be up against Rockliff, Rich, Zorko, Maloney so is there a spot for him. If Brisbane are smart they would make room and the new coach Leppitsch is a smart man. Keep an eye on him….Aish not the coach.

Short ramble tonight and the message is really – Stay with your selected fantasy team currently. Make some decisions after round 2 of the NAB Challenge. By then we should see who is truly fit, some consistent tactics may show and if a rookie can show consistency.
In the mean time – love your footy!

nab-rising-star-logo Last year all of the AFL Fantasy players began to drool and wait for Season 2013 for the chance to get Jaeger O’Meara into their sides. This kids made NAB Cup exciting and the promise of him playing in the AFL was almost unbearable to wait for.

2013 Season come along and about 90% of fantasy teams had this star to be in their sides. He didn’t disappoint, racking up disposal after disposal throughout out the entire season.

Outside the Fantasy world, the AFL and its fans also noticed this lad in the Gold Coast colours. So much so O’Meara earned himself a NAB Rising star nomination after round 5. His season has impressed so much that you can not even put money on him to win the Rising Star because he is regarded such a shoe in.

Interesting, after watching the short vid on the AFL site showing 5 nominees for the Rising Star, it got me thinking how much of a show in he is. So lets look at the stats of the perceived top 5:

In order of the odds – Jaeger O’Meara of Gold Coast (can not bet on), Brad Crouch of Adelaide ($1.50), Oliver Wines of Port Adelaide ($2.40), Sam Mayes of Brisbane ($21.00) and Aaron Mullet of North Melbourne ($26.00).

Their stats on paper from the AFL Site:

Brad Crouch Sam Mayes Jaeger O’Meara Aaron Mullet Oliver Wines
TOTALS Midfielder Midfielder Midfielder Defender Midfielder
Nominated Round 14 12 5 2 1
Games 13 17 21 21 21
Kicks 144 189 218 287 194
Handballs 170 99 233 111 209
Disposals 314 288 451 398 403
Cont. Possession 103 78 201 91 175
Marks 57 84 94 96 69
Cont. Marks 3 3 7 6 6
Tackles 57 40 105 34 85
One Percenters 8 19 19 24 20
Hit Outs 0 2 8 0 9
Goals 2 12 16 14 6
Behinds 5 5 10 1 9
Frees For 6 7 13 14 28
Clangers 24 21 67 41 53
Frees against 6 4 27 10 23
Rating points 108 142 236 212 169
Position Rank 189 170 138 102 159
Overall Rank 479 430 314 344 390

So going by the stats, I don’t think O’Meara is such a shoe in as they make it out to be. Last year’s winner was a defender , Daniel Talia so how important are the the numbers? Lets look at averages:

Brad Crouch Sam Mayes Jaeger O’Meara Aaron Mullet Oliver Wines
AVERAGES Midfielder Midfielder Midfielder Defender Midfielder
Kicks 11.1 11.1 10.4 11.8 9.2
Handballs 13.1 5.8 11.1 5.6 10
Disposals 24.2 16.9 21.5 17.4 19.2
Marks 4.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.3
Tackles 4.4 2.4 5 1.5 4
Hit Outs 0 0.1 0.4 0 0.4
Goals 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3
Behinds 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4

Crouch is a Disposal maniac and does not cough up the pull as often as O’Meara. Wines is a tackling machine and one of the reasons why Port Adelaide is playing finals this year. Mayes kicks goals and seems to be a great target up front as well as a good goal sneak. Mullet is listed as a Defender and is kicking straighter than most forwards at goals.

So is it a Jaeger O’Meara Rising Star win? Hmmm at $26 I think I may get on board Mullet at this point…but I maybe a tad bias.

aflfantasyWith 29% of AFL Dream Team coaches having Dayne Zorko in their team, including me, there is a lot of talk as what to do with him now.

So far his $487800 price tag is not working with scores of 52 and 75. His breakeven is at a high of 158 so we can be sure we will lose $30,000 approx after this week. So what do you do?

Do you hold out and hope it isn’t 2nd year blues but just a slow start?

Or jump off with a side ways trade to a Bartel (97 avg), Pavlich (75 avg) or Rockliff (95.5 avg)? For me, that doesn’t work as I have 2 of the 3 already.

Do you downgrade now to an under-priced forward that is scoring big and has a brilliant BE?

With 2 trades every week, this is exactly what you be looking at. Cash in now to a performer that will make you the instant cash and if Zorko come good later on, his price would have dropped enough to pick up with a profit. But who do you pick up?

The 2 that jump out of the box are Justin Westhoff and his team mate Angus Monfries. Both players are under $400,000. They both have BE less than 20 and Port Adelaide play Adelaide this week which always makes for a big game. Justin Westhoff top scored in the Fantasy world last week with 154 points but yes it was vs GWS Giants and his 100 points the week before was vs Melbourne. This does ask what will he do vs real defence this week for he could be tag with last years NAB Rising Star winner Daniel Talia.

There must be a safer option….Well there is but you do spend more.

Nick Riewoldt didn’t have his best year in 2012 and is discounted accordingly. AT $441,400 many coaches have overlooked him (owned by just 3.29%) and the fact the St Kilda lads are looking a little ‘aged’ doesn’t help. Here is the argument for Riewoldt – scores of 82 (Gold Coast) and 108 (Richmond) gives him the average of 95 with a BE of 68 and he plays GWS this week. He looks fit and is again playing up the wings.

So what do you do?

 $$ RD1 RD2 RD3 Prediction Next 3 Rds
Nick Riewoldt  $  441,400 82 108 89 GWS, ESS,

SYD

Justin Westhoff  $  394,800 100 154 100 ADE, GCS,

WCE

Angus Monfries  $  352,300 93 96 79 ADE, GCS,

WCE

Shaun Higgins  $  396,200 115 68 83 RIC, ADE,

GEE

Jeff Garlett  $  331,400 59 124 74 GEE, WCE,

ADE

Jamie Elliot  $  328,900 56 125 75 HAW, RIC,

ESS

Jeremy Howe  $  394,600 65 106 80 WCE, GWS,

BRI

aflfantasy This time I’m back for sure, well at least during the AFL season.

The completion of round has happened and I feel a lot of rage from watching the North Melbourne vs Geelong game so I feel I need to document my Kneejerkers DT and SC events. Maybe I will even inspire some fantasy footballers to listening to my advice (or highlight what not to do)

Kneejerkers are back for 2013 for AFL DreamTeam (now known as AFL Fantasy) but I thought I may dabble with Supercoach as well. I’ll mainly talk Dream Team

Now you would all know the changes to Dream Team this year with trades etc so I wont go into that too much at this point. In fact I will mention just this – DO NOT BE AFRAID TO TRADE EARLY AND EVERY WEEK

With 2 trades guaranteed every week, the fear of trading is gone but you still want to make money so try avoiding sideways trades unless injuries happen.

Saying all that, it is the end of round 2 and I have already used 3 trades 😉

First week was to make sure I didn’t have any holes in the my team with certain rookies not playing and cheaper ones did

OUT: Kane Mitchell and Brent Macaffer ($251,900) IN: Brad Crouch and Sam Dwyer ($197,800)     –     REASON: For the price McCaffer was vs the return add the fact I had the coverage on field with Neade, Dwyer gave me cash with same scores. Mitchell will get the Green Vest more often than not and Crouch looks to be the injection the Crows need ATM. RESULT: Kitty of $78,300

After round 2 the automatic trade was taking away my fill in ruckman Zac Smith, who is playing some very ordinary football but he did set aside the cash for my real target in Matthew Lueunberger, the cheap almost premium ruckman who made a great return last week with 74.

OUT: Zac Smith ($300,700) IN: Matt Lueunberger ($233,600)    –    REASON: Not only was Smith poor in DT performance but the Burger was back from injury. Lueunberger was always my target as with most Fantasy coaches with his potential and low price. RESULT: Kitty of $145,400.

Now with one trade left up sleeve for the week, I have options but nothing clear cut. Mid price Forward option Karnezis had a 66 game in RD1 and a green vested 9 points in Rd2. His breakeven is achievable though at 64…but will he play? There is also Premium priced Zorko, is he having 2nd year blues or will he fire? So far with scores of 52 and 75 and a breakeven of 158, you know he will lose money but you don’t know if he will turn it around. Will Brisbane suffer he NAB Cup curse?

Decisions……I am more in the mindset to hold on to both. Trading Karnezis for similar pricing really only leaves Varcoe which you know he will play. Zorko though,hmm. Westhoff is on fire with an average of 127 but another Port player just feels wrong, same with Monfries . Ideally I want Steve Johnson but its a least another 4 weeks till he is back. Anyway..I’m not spending all my kitty at this stage. That is for upgrading the rookies.

Overall the Kneejerkers are scoring well with 2058 and 1989 in the 1st two rounds. My POD Andrew Swallow has worked a treat with 141 and 115 returns AND less than 5% of coaches have him! Now I don’t want to give my team away too much as the Head to Head is about to start but I think finding POD is harder this year. It seems the same rookies are in each team and the stock standards Premium mids are there.

Expect more Kneejerkers talk throughout the week as I aim to not just talk about my DT and SC sides but the fantasy AFL world as a whole.

The 2010 AFL season has begun and so has the Dream Team comp. And boy, does my team different to the original one I posted?!
Original:
BACKS: JGram, CEnright, CCornes, LHodge, SHurn, TKennelly, RSchoenmakers, PDavies, JTrengrove (moved)
CENTRES: LHayes, JCorey, LBall, RPalmer, RLadson (moved), DMartin, JMelksham, LShuey
RUCKS: ASandilands, DJolly, MLobbe, JRoughead
FORWARDS: NReiwoldt, JBrown, MLeCras, BHall, BWarren, PDangerfield, BBurton, SGumbleton, LTapscott

That’s 19 changes and 2 were moved to different positions.
Why the changes? NAB cup form, injuries and the team lists for round 1 were the main factors. Of course after listening to my own podcast (One Troll Short) with Bifrost, I change my mind on a few players as well ie EBetts is in.
So who did finally make the cut? What 19 players impressed me enough to pick them up?
You will have to keep coming back after each 1st round match of AFL to find out as I can’t give away all my secrets yet….

BACKS: ACarrazzo, BNason, CEnright, JHunt, LHodge, TKennelly, NMalceski, HShaw, ASilvagni.
CENTRES: DMartin, JBartel, SMitchell, LJetta, SPendlebury, LBall, RBastinac, MBarlow.
RUCKS: RWarnock, JTrengrove, ASandilands, KTippert.
FORWARDS: EBetts, MDuncan, NRiewoldt, JBrown, PMedhurst, DGiansiracusa, BHall, CHitchcock, HBallantyne.

There you have it, the final line up for 2010 Dream Team.