Posts Tagged ‘andrew swallow’

aflfantasyClearly my hype around Andrew Swallow has not paid off.
Bringing him in before round 13 after Watson was injured, has produced scores of 78 and 84.
And last week he gets injured (was kind enough to get his BE first)
The Cash we were hoping to make has capped out at just over $2k. Now you need to dump him.
Hopefully you didn’t go too big with the cash already and you can bring in a premium mid like Barlow or Goddard.

With all my ranting and fanboy dribble for Swallow, I will be trading him out but I will be bringing in another North boy that just 1% of teams have. This lad has been averaging 115 in last 3 games and 124 in last 5. He finished with 127 last week and has a highest score of 147.
Levi Greenwood. Midfielder $555,690.

This man has been a machine since round 7. Where ever there is the ball, you will find Greenwood. His huge scores are not vs minnows of the league either 147 – Port, 120 – Gold Coast, 146 – Geelong, 133 West Coast oh and 127 – Melbourne. This week North play Brisbane again. Last they meet he scored just 91 points with 27 disposals.
It is hard to ignore North players with such an easy line up to the finals. Look at the 4 teams North play for the Fantasy finals – GWS, Bulldogs, Crows and Demons. To get there, North plays Saints, Blues and Cats (remember the 146 last time). Yes they have the Hawks as well but hey.

Levi Greenwood – great POD and on fire. Just saying.

aflfantasySince the pre-season of 2014 started, I have been spouting words of wisdom on AFL Fantasy do’s and dont’s.
At no point do I ever claim I actually know what I’m talking about by the way.
We are now entering into round 13, the mid point of the season, the time when your team should be just about complete. It is also a good time to reflect on how well your team is going. Also the time, if you are doing well, to panic and question every trade you do from here on in.
So did I listen to my own advice?

Team from round 2 (Original Line up):
DEF: K. Simpson, D. Swallow, M. Hibberd, W. Langford, T. Langdon, M. Suckling, C. Enright, A. Georgiou
MID: D. Beams, G. Abblett, J. Watson, J. Macrae, M. Barlow, T. Cotchin, J. Polec, D. Tyson, X. Ellis, H. Cunningham
RUC: T. Hickey, A. Sandilands, T. Derickx, D. Currie
FWD: D. Martin, M. LeCras, T. Mitchell, M. Pavlich, C. Wingard, J. Caddy, G. Rohan

For starters you can see I didn’t listen about Currie not getting a game. Fortunately I was proven wrong and he did get a few games in and it wasn’t until round 7 that I traded him out.

Best Selection from the Start:
From the start has been Kade Simpson. I have always been a fan of how he plays and the potential to score big has always been there. My reasoning was he was a proven defender and new gameplay should give him more run. This has turned out true with big scores of 145 and 143 in the bye weeks and and average of 102 with only one score under 80. For a defender, this is great.

Worst Trade:
I have used the 2 trades every week so far and there isn’t a lot of grief from the results…… so far. Bringing in Aylett and dumping Enright is probably my worst trade this season. In my defence, Enright was less than impressive and slightly injured and I was hoping for the cash boost. It never came.

Forced trades:
I have been fairly lucky with injuries as well with only a few forced trades such as LeCras (to Merret), Hickey (to Jacobs) and Barlow (to N.Jones). Going to Jacobs over Mumford is the big winner clearly. As all fantasy coaches recall, the week where the Mummy was a late withdrawal killed many scores. Why did I go Jacobs? It was basically because of the inconsistency of GWS.

Surprise rookie:
Langdon is looking more of a keeper each week. In fact he was my highest scoring defender last week with 87. Yes I rate him higher than Polec mainly because he is still in my team, hasn’t capped out in value, has DPP and doing a great job.

Best POD:
Nathan Jones was brought to cover the loss of Barlow. With Melbourne having some quality players now in the team, a coach that can get the best out of any player and the fact he has been a gun for many years but gets overlooked because he does play for Melbourne, Jones was going to play and reward me. And he did with scores of 93, 115 and 135 in the following weeks.

What does the team look like now?
As of the completion of round 12:
DEF: K. Simpson, D. Swallow, M. Hibberd, M. Jaesch, T. Langdon, M. Suckling, J. Bews, K. Aylett
MID: D. Beams, G. Abblett, J. Watson, J. Macrae, T. Rockliff, T. Cotchin, D. Swan, N. Fyfe, C. Shenton, Z. O’Brien
RUC: S. Jacobs, A. Sandilands, T. Derickx, F. Thurlow
FWD: D. Martin, B. Harvey, L. Dahlhaus, R. Gray, C. Wingard, T. Walker, S. Lloyd

What’s next?
Watson will go, obviously. I will be following my own advice and bring in A. Swallow. The extra $100K comes in handy, his BE is 74 so will go up. I do want to bring in either (or all) JPK, Barlow or Stevie J. With Stevie J’s BE at 154, what I am hoping is when his price bottoms out, it should be about the same time Swallow caps out and it could become a sideways trade.

Chopping Block
Cotchin is on the block (as was Macrae until the 139) and if it wasn’t for Watson getting injured, Cotchin was gone for Swallow. Gunston and Wingard will need to be upgraded before the finals as well. Sucking and Langdon will probably go as well eventually.
Injury free I was focusing on the backline to bring in a Bartel, McVeigh or Hanley but now this must wait.

Has my team worked so far this year?
Yes. I am currently ranked 1012th overall which is my best ranking in all the years I have been doing AFL Fantasy. I scored over 1700 in each of the bye weekends by sticking to my 8/10/12 plan, team is averaging 2017.92 and I am leading the OTS League. This does mean I am now in the panic and second guess my every trade from here on in phase of the season.

aflfantasyRound 11 done and the Kneejerkers scrapped to 2066 due to late withdrawals, concussions, corked thighs and poor performances.
The big panic for a lot of coaches was the late withdrawal of Dane Swan just 90 mins before the Friday night match. I too went into a panic. After the week of debating, planning and reading, I thought my entire trading plan was going out the window.
Deep breaths later, I stuck to my guns and held Swan on the bench and had Hallahan take his spot on the field. Thats all good, he should be good for a score of 80. No he gets a 64 meanwhile my latest IN before the round of Shenton scores 83.
A question some are asking, what to do with Swan? Trade him out for a Barlow maybe? Hold on to him and hope the pig is back vs Melbourne this week? To make it tougher, Collingwood and Melbourne play on the Monday which means we wont know the teams until after lockout.
Rodney Eade has given his injury assessment stating Swan should play.
My plan is to hold him with my priority to strengthen the backline. But if you have more of a luxury trade this week, Barlow is a very good choice, averaging 106 over the last 3 rounds, and is priced nicely for a sideways trade.

How about the Swans? Wow, did not expect the 110 point drumming to the Cats on Thursday. They are playing exciting footy and very exciting Fantasy footy currently. Eight players over the 100 mark last week and eight players averaging over 100 in the last 3 weeks. Lets look at the 5 you must be watching.

Position  Price BE Round 11 L3 Rd Ave L5 Rd Ave Overall Ave
Josh P Jennedy MID  $            578,302 88 123 133.67 124 112.1
Craig Bird FWD / MID  $            449,313 29 131 117.33 108.8 87.88
Luke Parker FWD / MID  $            528,344 88 108 116 111 103.1
Kieren Jack MID  $            527,535 84 123 114.33 113 100.11
Lance Franklin FWD  $            435,357 48 113 111.33 97 84.78

As you can see, these 5 are hitting some great form and will be going up next week in price, some quite heftily. What other coaches say? Get on Parker straight away.
He is the number one forward of the fantasy comp. I had the chance to get him but I was concerned about his output now that Tippet and Franklin were finding their rhythm. The concern is still there. Normally you would take a score of 108 from a forward without hesitation but this was in a game where the Swans dominated by 110 points so should he have had more because of the huge attacking game? For the record, I picked up Harvey instead of Parker.
Franklin is on fire over the last 3-5 weeks (not including the Melbourne game of 41), his price is drool worthy and his BE makes it a decision you need to make straight away. But lets look at the Melbourne score, and the North Melbourne game and the GWS game. This is where Buddy can hurt but, you know what? All forwards will do this to you some weeks. Don’t worry about the sub par scores, get on Buddy. The price and form of the Swans makes him a must.
Craig Bird I’m not sold on. 131 last week vs the Cats makes him tempting, his price makes him tempting and his Dual Position makes him tempting and maybe its the crash of form last year that yells no, i’m just not sure. JPK you can’t go wrong and Jack is another good pick up for his price.

Last week I quickly spoke about Andrew Swallow. After his long term injury he has now played 3 games. Last week vs the Eagles he looked more comfortable and less rust in his legs. His hard ball gets are back, last week sometime too hard which did cost a couple of frees against. What I did highlight is his tackling side of the game. Previous 5 years he averages over 7 tackles a game. Let us have a look at him so far. Swallow started as a sub in his first game, rotated fairly regularly over his second and still spent more than normal time on the pine last week. It works out over the 3 games he has a TOG of 71.7%. This will increase as his return to fitness increases.
In this 71% TOG he has already accumulated 18 tackles (6 per game which is equal 18th in the AFL), averaging 8.3 contested possessions, 9.3 uncontested possessions and is increasing his Fanatsy score each week (62, 72 and 102).
Swallows original price tag was $512,00 and because of his slow ease into the game he has already dropped to $439,402 with a BE of 92. This means he will probabaly have 1 maybe 2 more price drops before he starts hitting his stride and averages the 100 mark.
Do we pick him up? Looking at round 13-14 to pick up a player, you should by then already have a very strong midfield with players averaging more than 100 but! If you still have a Nathan Jones type player, Swallow could be the $400k player to downgrade to. You know he will increase in value and output. North Melbourne has one of the easiest runs home and once he makes the extra cash, you could upgrade to a bigger pig. If you have a rookie topping out but you dont have enough for the full upgrade, maybe the extra $100K you need comes from Swallow. Or maybe you just want a cheaper option on the bench that you know will always perform.
What ever need you have for your team, keep an eye on Andrew Swallow.

Trades this week (remember its very early in week and teams not announced)
Langdon OUT –> McVeigh/Bartel IN
Wingard/Llyod OUT –> Cameron IN

aflfantasyTrading in AFL Dreamteam has always been the most challenging aspect of fantasy football. With all the questions of, “do I cut my losses now, will he come good, what if I miss the star rookie, do I have enough trades, do I have enough cash?” nagging every coach.

With the changes to AFL Fantasy this year, allowing us to have 2 trades each week and every week, a lot of the regular questions were quashed. Only to highlight new ones.

“Am I trading just because I can?” Is the one I am asking myself each week. Followed by “Am I getting anything out of the trade or am I just trade happy?”

I don’t think I would be the only coach asking these questions. In fact I think most veteran coaches are now just starting to relook on how they will build their ultimate fantasy side. Any other year, would you have made 4 trades before round 3? Are the teams going to look too similar as the year goes by? Andrew Swallow was my Point of Difference (PoD) this year. I thought he was going to have a break out year and most know I am a Shinboner so I maybe a little bias. My PoD was working with less than 5% of coaches with him in their starting line. With so many trades available, he is now in almost 30% of teams. There goes my PoD.

But I too jumped on band wagon players such as Westhoff last week so it does ask the question how many teams will look very similar, how many coaches will trade to follow the latest  in form player and how many coaches will stay true to their original team if they may not be performing well early in the season?

The Kneejerkers have made 4 trades so far this year and I am already looking at 2 trades this week. Some trades were to twink the side and others were to jump on some band wagons. This week I am even looking at dumping Gary Ablett Jnr! The idea, dump him for some one like Mullet  (BE -15) or Hodge (BE 1), collect the extra $200K+ and wait for either Ablett (BE 177), Stanton (BE 84) or Watson  (BE 129) to get a positive Break Even (BE) and a stable lower price to bring them back in. When would you have ever thought of dumping an uninjured Ablett before?

As long as you ask yourself before you hit the confirm button, “Am I trading for the sake of trading or do I actually have a long term plan as to why I am trading now?” you should go alright throughout the year…as long as you are answering a yes to the second part of the question…