Posts Tagged ‘Adelaide Crows’

So Join In The Chorus And Sing It One And All!

Pretenders, Contenders with a splash of controversy

The Pretenders:

Richmond (13th 1-3) again finds a way to lose. With a great record in WA, they were confident only to be bullied by West Coast. Bringing in Delidio cannot pull the Tigers out of this slump. Maybe resigning Hardwick at the start of the season was a little premature

Fremantle (17th 0-4) who would have seen this coming? A team that has the current Brownlow medalist, Minor Premiers of 2015. Grand finalists of 2013. They looked slow in round 1, old in round 2, shocked in round 3 and demoralized in round 4. No team has made finals from a 0-4 start.

Collingwood (15th 1-3) with all their recruiting, their powerful midfield they still lack forwards and defenders. Swan is a huge loss, Pendles in playing a horrible role and they cant hold the ball for long enough. Finals berth for the Pies? I wouldn’t lock it in Eddie.

The Contenders

West Coast (6th 3-1) Demolished the Tigers with brutality and desire. This has been their play over 3 matches. Dropping the 2015 Grand Final replay where the Hawks are in their head. Their running game from defence is brilliant and while others try to stop Kenndey gives the rise to Darling. I tipped them to be premiers this year and its hard to see where I went wrong.

Adelaide (7th 3-1) Dangerfield who? MIssing there number 1 has given life to their midfield engine. The likes of Crouch, Sloane and the ever young Thompson have performed higher than expected. Its their forward line that is the damage dealer: Jenkins is coming into his own, Tex and Betts still impressive and Tom Lynch is doing his role above expectation. This Friday night will be the tell…vs the Hawks

Western Bulldogs (2nd 3-1) If you are new to AFL and are intrigued about the game, watch the Doggies. Their brand of footy is glorious to watch. The youth of Dahlhaus, The Bonte, Stringer, Macrae, Libba, Hunter, Johannisen, Caleb and the list goes on, are putting it to each and every team they face. Their biggest challenge now are on the injuries front. Murphy, the ‘father’ of the pups is a huge long term out. Now they have lost Johannisen for 10 weeks and Boyd for a stint. This is where the will need to prove the breed.

North Melbourne (1st 4-0) I’m adding this mainly because they are on top of the ladder. The only undefeated team in the league. Winning games that 2-3 years ago they would have found a way to lose. The first time since 1998 they have been 4-0 which they did make the Grand Final but lost. I am pumped to see them on top of the ladder but I am realistic enough to know wins against Freo are a given and Brisbane and Melbourne are true contender wins so until North takes down a Hawthorn, Sydney or West Coast it is hard to make a true Contender call with the hardest fixture in the league.

With the footy about to finally start, a mate of mine asked me what my top 8, premiership and wooden spoon predications are.

Good question Bifrost.

Let’s start with the Premiership

With Fremantles stunned mullet grand final appearance behind, they will be out to prove (and redeem) themselves to the fans. What could also be the final years of Pavlich, Sandilands and McPharlin, there will be a huge push to send them off with the deserve Grand Final win. Speaking of Sandilands, how good is he playing after , what looks like, finally getting over the dreaded Turf Toe. I also see a Grand Final rematch happening.

Premiership Flag goes to Fremantle.

The wooden spoon

Not really a tough prediction here. GWS are improving and as long as they stay fit and have shaken off the 2nd year blues, they should be more competitive throughout the year. St Kilda would be the only contender outside GWS for the spoon. I do not see many wins from the Saints as they rebuild from the large retirements and/or trades from last year. It will be a long year for the Saints faithful.

Wooden Spoon goes to GWS Giants

The Ladder

This was tough. The top 3 was easy and you can mix them around but it will still be Sydney, Fremantle and Hawthorn. But who will fill in the other 5 possies of the 8.

Collingwood will still be a force with Swan, Pendles, Beams, Adams and Ball as an engine room, how could they not be. Richmond and North Melbourne are in similar places, high expextations from clubs, fans and the AFL. The Tiges are looking great with again another powerful midfield. The Cotch in NAB looked fantastic, Ellis is ready to take the next step in his game and ‘Don’t Argue” Martin will again make his presence known. For North, the draw is a big factor with the Lions, Bulldogs, Crows and Demons played twice. They will look flat at first while they still adapt not having Swallow but this will force Ziebell and Cunnington to step up. The backline is looking its strongest especially with the addition of Father/Son McDonald.

Geelong may not be the powerhouse they were a few years ago but you cannot write them off. Some astute pick ups have made a very strong young team. Players like Caddy, Hunt, Horlin-Smith and Guthrie coming through, they will be a dominant force again sooner than we would like. Essendon, yes Essendon. Last year they made the eight despite the media witch hunt and ASADA hovering around them. They were stripped of some of the points and missed the finals. Expect them to play hard this season, with less distraction and something to prove.

That would be the eight but the next 3 teams have cases to push themselves in there. Port Adelaide making the finals has given them a tough draw with Fremantle and Carlton to be played twice and Away games versus Sydney, Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast and Fremantle. Tough run, tough ask. Gold Coast will be a big mover this year. They have the right mix of experienced players with players like Bennell, Swallow, O’Meara and Prestia ready to go up another gear and add Jack Martin in their with evergreen Ablett, they will not be a walk over team and should win more than the tiptsers expect. Carlton is a team I can’t quite work out. Low possession football is very different to this age of football. With Cinderella Ankle Thomas in the mid, will that help the heavily tagged Murphy.

These next teams will be a frustrating team to follow. There will be highs and more lows in the year. For Melbourne though, it will all be positive. Roos has already started to work his magic and with the new look midfield of Vince, Dyson, Michie to help the older gaurd of Jones and Cross, there is much to be excited about. West Coast is another team that I struggle to say why they wont be in the 8 but I know they wont. Western Bulldogs will be exciting to watch with the likes of Liberatore, Dahlhaus and Macrae running about. Hey if Higgens stays off the stretcher they may prove my prediction for them wrong. Adelaide lost a lot of players in the draft period, they have key players injured and they will need time to recover.

The bottom 3. I have already talked about GWS and the Saints so that leaves the Brisbane 2nds. Another team to have a mass exodus last year they will be a long time coming to put pressure on other teams.

So there you have it. My ladder prediction, wooden spooners and flag bearers. Lets see who this looks mid way through the year.

  1. Fremantle Dockers
  2. Hawthorn Hawks
  3. Sydney Swans
  4. Collingwood Magpies
  5. Richmond Tigers
  6. North Melbourne Kangaroos
  7. Geelong Cats
  8. Essendon Bombers
  9. Port Adelaide Power
  10. Gold Coast Suns
  11. Carlton Blues
  12. Western Bulldogs
  13. West Coast Eagles
  14. Adelaide Crows
  15. Melbourne Demons
  16. Brisbane Lions
  17. St Kilda Saints
  18. GWS Giants

nab-rising-star-logo Last year all of the AFL Fantasy players began to drool and wait for Season 2013 for the chance to get Jaeger O’Meara into their sides. This kids made NAB Cup exciting and the promise of him playing in the AFL was almost unbearable to wait for.

2013 Season come along and about 90% of fantasy teams had this star to be in their sides. He didn’t disappoint, racking up disposal after disposal throughout out the entire season.

Outside the Fantasy world, the AFL and its fans also noticed this lad in the Gold Coast colours. So much so O’Meara earned himself a NAB Rising star nomination after round 5. His season has impressed so much that you can not even put money on him to win the Rising Star because he is regarded such a shoe in.

Interesting, after watching the short vid on the AFL site showing 5 nominees for the Rising Star, it got me thinking how much of a show in he is. So lets look at the stats of the perceived top 5:

In order of the odds – Jaeger O’Meara of Gold Coast (can not bet on), Brad Crouch of Adelaide ($1.50), Oliver Wines of Port Adelaide ($2.40), Sam Mayes of Brisbane ($21.00) and Aaron Mullet of North Melbourne ($26.00).

Their stats on paper from the AFL Site:

Brad Crouch Sam Mayes Jaeger O’Meara Aaron Mullet Oliver Wines
TOTALS Midfielder Midfielder Midfielder Defender Midfielder
Nominated Round 14 12 5 2 1
Games 13 17 21 21 21
Kicks 144 189 218 287 194
Handballs 170 99 233 111 209
Disposals 314 288 451 398 403
Cont. Possession 103 78 201 91 175
Marks 57 84 94 96 69
Cont. Marks 3 3 7 6 6
Tackles 57 40 105 34 85
One Percenters 8 19 19 24 20
Hit Outs 0 2 8 0 9
Goals 2 12 16 14 6
Behinds 5 5 10 1 9
Frees For 6 7 13 14 28
Clangers 24 21 67 41 53
Frees against 6 4 27 10 23
Rating points 108 142 236 212 169
Position Rank 189 170 138 102 159
Overall Rank 479 430 314 344 390

So going by the stats, I don’t think O’Meara is such a shoe in as they make it out to be. Last year’s winner was a defender , Daniel Talia so how important are the the numbers? Lets look at averages:

Brad Crouch Sam Mayes Jaeger O’Meara Aaron Mullet Oliver Wines
AVERAGES Midfielder Midfielder Midfielder Defender Midfielder
Kicks 11.1 11.1 10.4 11.8 9.2
Handballs 13.1 5.8 11.1 5.6 10
Disposals 24.2 16.9 21.5 17.4 19.2
Marks 4.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 3.3
Tackles 4.4 2.4 5 1.5 4
Hit Outs 0 0.1 0.4 0 0.4
Goals 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3
Behinds 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.4

Crouch is a Disposal maniac and does not cough up the pull as often as O’Meara. Wines is a tackling machine and one of the reasons why Port Adelaide is playing finals this year. Mayes kicks goals and seems to be a great target up front as well as a good goal sneak. Mullet is listed as a Defender and is kicking straighter than most forwards at goals.

So is it a Jaeger O’Meara Rising Star win? Hmmm at $26 I think I may get on board Mullet at this point…but I maybe a tad bias.

aflfantasyWith 29% of AFL Dream Team coaches having Dayne Zorko in their team, including me, there is a lot of talk as what to do with him now.

So far his $487800 price tag is not working with scores of 52 and 75. His breakeven is at a high of 158 so we can be sure we will lose $30,000 approx after this week. So what do you do?

Do you hold out and hope it isn’t 2nd year blues but just a slow start?

Or jump off with a side ways trade to a Bartel (97 avg), Pavlich (75 avg) or Rockliff (95.5 avg)? For me, that doesn’t work as I have 2 of the 3 already.

Do you downgrade now to an under-priced forward that is scoring big and has a brilliant BE?

With 2 trades every week, this is exactly what you be looking at. Cash in now to a performer that will make you the instant cash and if Zorko come good later on, his price would have dropped enough to pick up with a profit. But who do you pick up?

The 2 that jump out of the box are Justin Westhoff and his team mate Angus Monfries. Both players are under $400,000. They both have BE less than 20 and Port Adelaide play Adelaide this week which always makes for a big game. Justin Westhoff top scored in the Fantasy world last week with 154 points but yes it was vs GWS Giants and his 100 points the week before was vs Melbourne. This does ask what will he do vs real defence this week for he could be tag with last years NAB Rising Star winner Daniel Talia.

There must be a safer option….Well there is but you do spend more.

Nick Riewoldt didn’t have his best year in 2012 and is discounted accordingly. AT $441,400 many coaches have overlooked him (owned by just 3.29%) and the fact the St Kilda lads are looking a little ‘aged’ doesn’t help. Here is the argument for Riewoldt – scores of 82 (Gold Coast) and 108 (Richmond) gives him the average of 95 with a BE of 68 and he plays GWS this week. He looks fit and is again playing up the wings.

So what do you do?

 $$ RD1 RD2 RD3 Prediction Next 3 Rds
Nick Riewoldt  $  441,400 82 108 89 GWS, ESS,

SYD

Justin Westhoff  $  394,800 100 154 100 ADE, GCS,

WCE

Angus Monfries  $  352,300 93 96 79 ADE, GCS,

WCE

Shaun Higgins  $  396,200 115 68 83 RIC, ADE,

GEE

Jeff Garlett  $  331,400 59 124 74 GEE, WCE,

ADE

Jamie Elliot  $  328,900 56 125 75 HAW, RIC,

ESS

Jeremy Howe  $  394,600 65 106 80 WCE, GWS,

BRI

The 2010 AFL season has begun and so has the Dream Team comp. And boy, does my team different to the original one I posted?!
Original:
BACKS: JGram, CEnright, CCornes, LHodge, SHurn, TKennelly, RSchoenmakers, PDavies, JTrengrove (moved)
CENTRES: LHayes, JCorey, LBall, RPalmer, RLadson (moved), DMartin, JMelksham, LShuey
RUCKS: ASandilands, DJolly, MLobbe, JRoughead
FORWARDS: NReiwoldt, JBrown, MLeCras, BHall, BWarren, PDangerfield, BBurton, SGumbleton, LTapscott

That’s 19 changes and 2 were moved to different positions.
Why the changes? NAB cup form, injuries and the team lists for round 1 were the main factors. Of course after listening to my own podcast (One Troll Short) with Bifrost, I change my mind on a few players as well ie EBetts is in.
So who did finally make the cut? What 19 players impressed me enough to pick them up?
You will have to keep coming back after each 1st round match of AFL to find out as I can’t give away all my secrets yet….

BACKS: ACarrazzo, BNason, CEnright, JHunt, LHodge, TKennelly, NMalceski, HShaw, ASilvagni.
CENTRES: DMartin, JBartel, SMitchell, LJetta, SPendlebury, LBall, RBastinac, MBarlow.
RUCKS: RWarnock, JTrengrove, ASandilands, KTippert.
FORWARDS: EBetts, MDuncan, NRiewoldt, JBrown, PMedhurst, DGiansiracusa, BHall, CHitchcock, HBallantyne.

There you have it, the final line up for 2010 Dream Team.