The Byes- Trade out or tank it?

Posted: May 1, 2014 in AFL Fantasy
Tags: , ,

aflfantasy Round 6 is complete, round 7 is upon us and then it is the early season byes. This is where if you have been carefully planning since day dot, you find out if it was worth it, or its the time coaches start panicking about having no mid field in round 8 and of course there are the thoughts of ‘Sod it, I’ll tank a round”.
Question is, what is the best way to go about it?
Answer is…..fked if I know.
Let’s weigh up the the trade or tank options.
For a coach to plan for the byes, they need to take into account which players have a bye and in which round (yeah thanks captain obvious). The ideal team structure for the byes is to have a 8/10/12 line up. This means in round 8 you have 8 players on a bye, round 9 you have 10 and round 10 you have 12. This, of course, is the set up before the byes.
The idea behind this is so you can trade 2 players that have played and are about to have a bye to be trade for someone who has just had their bye.
Sounds simple and in theory it is. Usually it means sideways trading is involved and you need to prepare more than a week ahead. This tactic is the simplest way to have a full team every week during the byes.
BUT! This also means you could miss out in bringing fantasy guns when their price takes a drop. Dayne Swan is the immediate one that comes to mind. Swan, at the start of the season was the 2nd most expensive player in the league but with a really start his price dropped from $636,600 to the lowest point before last round, $537486. We all know he is a champion and he will bounce back. Scores of 145 and 122 prove that and his current price of $550,134 will only go up. You have to jump on him right?
Well most coaches would already have a mixture of Stevie J, Ablett, Beams, Pendlebury, Cotchin, J Selwood in their line up, that are already missing the round 8 because of the bye. You bring in Swan and you are basically surrendering the round 8 because, if you are a decent coach, you wouldn’t have anyone left to field.
You do need to remember though, you maybe relying on rookies, bench players and the like to fill the gaps during the byes. So maybe you are going to get low scores anyway because of these players or maybe these players, like Currie, will not play anyway?
This brings in the question, Do I suck it up and tank round 8 to make sure I get a fantasy pig at the lowest price he will be and then I will have very strong teams for rounds 9 and 10?
Tanking for the novices, is deliberately losing a match. In fantasy teams, it means having a lot of doughnuts on the field and surrendering your league match. It would also make your overall ranking take a massive hit. And this is the key point to which tactic you follow.
Taking a tanked round probably wont hurt you in your league because you would make up for it with big wins in the next two rounds. If you are going for the overall ranking and grand prize, you should be looking at posting your best score every week and couldn’t afford to tank.

For me, what am I doing. Well I started the season with the byes in mind. I planned to have as close to the 8/10/12 set up as possible but with injuries forcing a couple of things, I now sit at 10/8/12. Swan is so deliciously priced it is hard to not bring him in but that would be a tanking move as I would have 4 missing from the mids alone and a bench player that currently isn’t playing. And my Forward line does need some attention.
My current train of thought is to bring in Swan, take the hit and bring in N Riewoldt the following week (or after his bye) as he is the form forward but should take a price hit with last weeks performance providing a BE of 145. Of course if I do it next week, I leave a another hole in the round 10 bye. Decisions, decisions.

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Comments
  1. Grizzlee says:

    Just FYI, I didn’t bring in Swan. I kept to my bye plan and strengthened my forwards and prepared for the round 8 bye.
    After seeing Swan’s score, I am happy with my choice.

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